Values to Vision scenarios for bridging the gap.

Some insights I would like to share from Uri Avin, Robert Goodspeed & Lily Murnen: From Exploratory Scenarios to Plans: Bridging the Gap.

Many planners may be familiar with normative scenario planning.
With roots in the tradition of utopian plans, normative scenario planning similarly seeks to create a scenario that describes a desirable vision for the future. However, unlike the single and often vague vision in utopian plans, normative scenario planning adopts scenario planning methods from other fields to create multiple plausible, detailed scenarios for the future to clarify what is desired through contrasting multiple options.
Exploratory scenario planning (or XSP), is a different scenario planning approach, which incorporates an explicit analysis of these types of uncertainties through exploratory scenarios. Whereas normative scenario planning asks the question, “What is our desired future?”, exploratory scenario planning proceeds from a different mind-set which is a hallmark of the scenario tradition in management, which asks, “What might the future hold?”.

A key challenge introduced by the creation of exploratory scenarios within urban planning is how exploratory scenarios – which describe possible, but not necessarily desirable futures – can be used to create plans. In this article, a plan is defined as a document that proposes specific actions, such as uses of resources, infrastructure projects, or public policies.

Takeaways for Practice

Exploratory scenarios can be used to develop and refine strategies that can be included in plans.
Five key considerations in the scenario process are put forward to practitioners for consideration as they shape their own projects:

1. Create a small number of very different scenarios, but not a trend scenario. 
   Even though scenario planning tools can produce hundreds of scenarios, practice has converged on the goal of presenting 3–5 scenarios that together represent a range of uncertainty. Keeping the number small ensures the project respects the well-documented limits of working memory about how many separate ideas we can consider simultaneously. Exploratory projects should not include a “trend” scenario, since each scenario must reflect assumptions about multiple uncertainties, and due to forces like climate change or AI impacts, the future cannot be conceptualized as simply the unfolding of current trends.
2. Ground the scenario creation and analysis in stakeholder values. Draw on various sources to consider stakeholder values, operationalizing them through “guiding principles.” Although this can be done in various ways, the key is to ensure the specific measures used to compare how the scenarios relate to the fundamental values – which are often conflicting – held by different stakeholders.
3. Evaluate the performance of the scenarios through a limited set of diverse metrics or indicators. Most projects settle on a limited set of modeled indicators, typically 10 to 20, to describe the performance of the future scenarios. Both of the cases here demonstrate that they should not be limited to available quantitative data – and in fact qualitative measures can be useful to consider more abstract issues such as equity or other project principles.
4. Test newly-created strategies, as well as existing projects against the scenarios. Strategies need to be specific enough to be analyzed, but general enough to remain relevant in a fluid policy environment. Striking this balance depends on the particular project context. When XSP projects conduct project-level evaluation, the results can be utilized in ongoing planning and programming conversations, such as the creation of an annual Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) by MPOs.
5. Identify robust and contingent strategies and projects to be included in plans. As outlined above, robust strategies perform well across all scenarios, and contingent strategies may only make sense under certain conditions.

Ultimately, much of scenario planning is an exercise in creativity and critical thinking. As more projects venture into exploratory territory, we provide these considerations to practitioners working to develop the next generation of scenario planning ….