Category: Decision Intelligence
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De auto, de geit en de wiskunde
driedeuren.nl www.nieuwezijds.nl/boek/de-auto-de-geit-en-de-wiskunde Het is een klassiek wiskunderaadsel: het driedeurenprobleem. Je mag in een spelshow kiezen tussen drie deuren. Achter één deur staat een auto die je graag wil winnen, achter de andere twee een geit. Zodra je een deur kiest, maakt de presentator een van de twee andere open: daar staat een geit. En dan…
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a psychology of real-life decision-making
“Toward a psychology of real-life decision-making” Novel developments in biologging technology allow for precise measurement of individual-level behavior across time and space. Additionally, novel technologies allow researchers to quantify in detail the environments in which people are embedded when making decisions. Such devices, however, are only useful to cognitive scientists when integrated with formal theoretical…
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Structure Inference Improves From Childhood to Adulthood
“Structure Inference in Complex Environments Improves From Childhood to Adulthood” also available on website of Aaron M. Bornstein. Early in development, children can infer latent structure in the world from sparse and ambiguous evidence. Through a process known as structure learning, they extract statistical regularities, construct causal models from those regularities, and use those models…
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Four faces of information in natural systems
Ever wonder what “information” really means? Here‘s a new paper, that lays out the multiple ways the term is used in natural science. Instead of arguing for a single valid interpretation, the paper proposes a pluralistic view where rigorous alternatives coexist — each with affordances and limits. The idea of ‘information’ has been instrumental to…
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Making sense of wickedness
“Making sense of wickedness: Directionality heuristics for challenge-led innovation policy” Highlights Sense-making helps to understand how policymakers view and tackle wicked problems. Directionality heuristics are mental shortcuts used to interpret and address problems. Different degrees of wickedness call for different directionality heuristics. Nescience creates additional directionality challenges for challenge-led policies. This article contributes to the…
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In de wolk of op de grond? – Is AI dan toch intelligent?
Ik was aangenaam verrast met de volgende uitspraak en de verduidelijking die ze me aanreikte: “Man with head in the clouds and feet on the ground, he very big man.”Niet echt een “quote” of gezegde, maar toch aangehaald om te verwijzen naar de groten der aarde. “Einstein was a giant. His head was in the…
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Brain rhythms – predictive processing perspective
“Brain rhythms of depression: A predictive processing perspective” Findings from electroencephalography studies converge on the notion that depression involves disrupted updating of beliefs, wherein positive and corrective information carries too little weight to revise rigid expectations about the self and the world. Across a range of neural signals, the brains of individuals with depression register…
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To explore or exploit: Individual differences in preschool decision making
“To explore or exploit: Individual differences in preschool decision making” Adapting to novel situations requires balancing exploration versus exploitation. Examining patterns of explore/exploit in decision making provides a more ecologically valid measure of performance. Research indicates individual and developmental differences in explore/exploit strategies. Differences in strategy use have implications for social adjustment and development disorders.…
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Cooperation versus social welfare
“Cooperation versus social welfare” Understanding and promoting cooperative behaviour among self-interested individuals is a critical concern in physical, biological, and social sciences. Numerous foundational mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation have been identified, and these mechanisms have served as the basis for developing tools and interventions designed to sustain and enhance cooperative behaviour. However, since…
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Neurocognitive Dynamics: Nonergodicity and Simpson’s paradox
“Nonergodicity and Simpson’s paradox in neurocognitive dynamics of cognitive control” Nonergodicity and Simpson’s paradox present significant, yet underappreciated challenges in cognitive neuroscience. Leveraging brain imaging and behavioral data from over 4000 individuals and a Bayesian computational model of cognitive dynamics, we investigated brain-behavior relationships underlying cognitive control at both between-subjects and within-subjects levels. Strikingly, brain-behavior…
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Origins and Evolution of Imagination
“Origins and Evolution of Imagination, From Australopithecus to Modern-Day Deep Learning” Where does imagination come from? How did it originate, and which organisms are capable of imagination? What deeper connections does imagination share with consciousness, survival, and the very essence of life? Across both scientific literature and public discourse, imagination is invoked to describe a…
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The body does not keep the score
“The body does not keep the score: trauma, predictive coding, and the restoration of metastability” For nearly a decade, the idea that “the body keeps the score” has shaped public and clinical understanding of trauma. It is an enticing metaphor—implying that experience is literally inscribed in flesh, that the body bears the scars of what…
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Beyond Belief
“Beyond Belief: How Evidence Shows What Really Works” The remarkable story of the global movement championing the idea that evidence, not opinions, should guide our decisions. Published by Princeton University Press, April 2026. Today, more and more people around the globe are using scientific evidence to figure out what works—in health, government and business as…
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Athletes and other Animals
“Embodied decision making in athletes and other animals” Humans and other animals continuously make embodied decisions about ongoing or pending courses of action. Examples of embodied decisions include a hunting lioness’s decision of which gazelle to chase and a soccer player’s decision of which teammate to pass the ball to. The study of embodied decisions has recently…
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Social Observations, Decisions, Explore/Exploit
“Observational learning of exploration-exploitation strategies in bandit tasks” In decision-making scenarios, individuals often face the challenge of balancing between exploring new options and exploiting known ones—a dynamic known as the exploration-exploitation trade-off. In such situations, people frequently have the opportunity to observe others’ actions. Yet little is known about when, how, and from whom individuals…
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Robust Decision-Making Via Free Energy Minimization
“Robust Decision-Making Via Free Energy Minimization” html, pdf, video, Nature Communications Despite their groundbreaking performance, state-of-the-art autonomous agents can misbehave when training and environmental conditions become inconsistent, with minor mismatches leading to undesirable behaviors or even catastrophic failures. Robustness towards these training/environment ambiguities is a core requirement for intelligent agents and its fulfillment is a…
