Models .. Right or Wrong:

Often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, but the rooted elsewhere:

“It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.”

Carveth Read, Logic: Deductive and Inductive” 4th edition -1920, p.351

You all have probably heard the story about Malcolm Forbes, who once got lost floating for miles in one of his famous balloons and finally landed in the middle of a cornfield. He spotted a man coming toward him and asked, “Sir, can you tell me where I am?” The man said, “Certainly, you are in a basket in a field of corn.”

Forbes said, “You must be a statistician.”
The man said, “That’s amazing, how did you know that?”
Easy,” said Forbes, “your information is concise, precise, and absolutely useless!

One response to “Models .. Right or Wrong:”

  1. […] The essence of the rationale is well explained and related to the short blog I wrote referring to Pia Lauritzen, the knowledge “MODELS EMBODY EXPERT JUDGEMENTS“, and “It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.” […]

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