“Holistic understanding of uncertainty for collaborative and
proactive global change decision making”
Global change is accelerating and pushing the planet’s ecosystems beyond the range of historical observations, creating increasing uncertainty in future system conditions.
Despite general agreement that proactive environmental action is warranted, environmental decision conversations often end by identifying additional data needed to reduce uncertainty before taking novel action.
Given the inherent uncertainty in complex issues such as global change, quantitative data alone are likely insufficient to support proactive environmental action.
Holistic understanding of uncertainty includes scientific quantification of uncertainty paired with emotional responses and transcendental grounding to help people work together toward proactive action in uncertain decision contexts. Holistic understanding arises from the four ways in which humans perceive the world, termed the Four Realms: Physical (e.g., how I observe), Mental (e.g., how I think), Emotional (e.g., how I feel), and Transcendental (e.g., how I connect to greater meaning or purpose).
Environmental scientists and decision makers are generally trained in Physical and Mental Realm observation and analysis, but not in how to apply Emotional and Transcendental Realm understanding. Emotional and Transcendental processing occurs in scientists and decision makers whether it is acknowledged or not and contributes to different people interpreting the same information in different ways. Thus, when the role of Emotional and Transcendental Realms in an individual’s interpretation process is not understood, it can derail conversations and perpetuate the status quo.
Explicitly recognizing all Four Realms can bring people together across differences and inspire shared, novel decision making even in increasing uncertainty. To illustrate the benefits of holistic understanding, we share stories from our experiences in environmental decision contexts. Because accessing the Four Realms requires experiential and embodied techniques, while still relying on core scientific tenets of observation and analysis, we also present techniques for readers to learn to feel their own emotional understanding and connect to their own transcendental understanding. Holistic understanding can enhance data-driven decisions by recognizing that human responses to uncertainty inherently include interactions between emotions, thoughts, transcendental connections, and behavior. Ultimately, holistic understanding can help anchor data-driven decisions in intra- and interpersonal connections, inspiring action in the face of uncertainty.
Illustration credit: Benjamin Slyngstad.
| Perception | Internal process of interpreting stimuli to make sense of the world. In the interpretation process, one’s worldviews, values, beliefs, and attitudes filter, select, or otherwise determine how information or stimuli are processed. |
| Four Realms | The ways that humans perceive or experience the world and their role in it. |
| Physical Realm | Perception based on physical observation (i.e., feel, see, hear, taste, smell). In environmental science contexts, this includes data observations, experimentation, and quantification of uncertainty. May also be referred to as the “Observational Realm.” |
| Mental Realm | Perception based on logic, reason, and language-based understanding of the world. In environmental decision making contexts, this includes advancing scientific theory, modeling, and decision frameworks. May also be referred to as the “Intellectual Realm.” |
| Emotional Realm | Perception based on feelings (e.g., what brings us fear, joy, anger, awe), including how one’s own interpretation of stimuli produce emotions (e.g., unconsciously interpreting conflicting ideas as a threat to one’s worldview and resulting in the emotion of anger). |
| Transcendental Realm | Perception based on a connection to something greater than oneself, including a sense of purpose, a responsibility to other living and nonliving beings, and one’s moral code or ethical grounding. May also be referred to as the “Spiritual Realm,” where spiritual may include but is not necessarily to be conflated with “religious.” |
| Holistic processing | Overlap and interaction of all Four Realms of perception to form one’s worldviews, values, beliefs, and attitudes. |
However, thinking is inherently a Mental Realm technique of processing information.
Physical Realm processing occurs through observing, hearing, touching, smelling, and tasting.
Emotional Realm processing occurs through feeling emotions.
Transcendental Realm processing occurs through a connection to something greater than one’s self.
Illustration credit: Benjamin Slyngstad.
To apply the Four Realms framework in global change conversations, we suggest incorporating techniques to
(1) foster intra- and interpersonal connection,
(2) maintain a solutions-oriented focus, and
(3) learn and improve for next time.
| Foster intra- and interpersonal connection | Incorporate mindfulness | Mindfulness is “nonjudgmental, moment-to-moment awareness” and can be calming, cultivate focus, and foster social cohesion. Foundations of mindfulness (e.g., non-judgment, patience, acceptance) are critical for finding collective solutions and moving beyond the status quo. |
| Cocreate group agreements | Identify shared behavioral expectations for the group. Ideas should be concrete and genuinely agreed upon by all. | |
| Acknowledge and explore emotions | Explore how ecological grief, climate anxiety, and solastalgia might show up in life and work.Name the emotion you feel (e.g., I feel angry). Then focus on the physical sensation of the emotion (e.g., my chest is tight). Focusing on the physical sensation, rather than a mental justification for your emotion (e.g., “she just needs to listen to me!”) can help uncomfortable emotions pass with practice. Be as specific as possible when naming your emotion. Individuals with high emotional specificity (i.e., emotional granularity) handle stress and adversity better. | |
| Create space for storytelling | Narratives expand cognition, changing how we see problems and our role in them. Indigenous storytelling can increase understanding and counter power imbalances. | |
| Turn debate- to dialogue- and collective-based conversations | Debate-based conversations advance one’s own point of view, dialogue-based conversations open inquiry and reflection, and collective-based conversations tap into a shared sense of purpose. | |
| Two-eyed seeing | Respect Indigenous Knowledge and positivist science as equally valuable. | |
| Engage in transformative listening | Listening to deeply understand without back-and-forth dialogue. Transformative listening can elucidate vulnerabilities underlying challenging emotions (e.g., identifying a subconscious threat to one’s way of life that underlies anger), helping to dissipate the challenging emotion and increase empathy in the listener —also see Deep Listening and Generative Listening. | |
| Maintain an action-oriented focus | Reframe constraints as opportunities | People often downplay creative ideas due to logistical, financial, or political constraints—stifling creative idea generation. To maintain a creative brainstorming session, keep a running list of constraints off to the side and refocus the group on fully creative brainstorming. Afterward, re focus on the list of constraints. Challenge the group to identify how to remove or move past each constraint. Asking how constraints can be turned into opportunities opens creative thinking and self-reflection. |
| Take responsibility for your sphere of influence | If people focus on what they think others should be doing, introduce concepts of sphere of concern versus sphere of influence, and complex system functioning and owning one’s own contribution to the issue. Challenge people to identify actions they can take within their own sphere of influence that will contribute to a solution. | |
| Connect to transcendental motivation | Grounding in a sense of purpose or ethic fosters continual striving in the face of uncertainty. The “5 Why’s” can help identify transcendental grounding: Why do they work in their profession (e.g., “to make money” or “to care for the environment”). Then ask why they [want to make money/care for the environment] (2nd “why”), and so on. It often takes 5 “why’s” to get to an underlying transcendental connection. Then, honor the diverse reasons bringing people to their work to tap into the group’s creative potential. | |
| Learning and improving for next time | Incorporate time for reflection after group gatherings | Prepare reflection prompts (e.g., what/so what/now what) and provide a step-by-step process for someone or a group to deconstruct (unpack) an experience. Include reflections on what went well and what could be improved for next time. |
| Publish the process | Rather than simply publishing the outcomes of research or management, publish the messy interpersonal process. |
The Four Realms framework may help positivist scientists, stewards, and decision makers move from a prevailing dichotomous worldview (e.g., if they are right, then I am wrong; if they win, I lose) toward a more pluralistic view. From a dichotomous worldview, the suggestion to acknowledge the inherent role of Emotional and Transcendental Realms may raise assumptions that the Physical and Mental Realms would play a smaller or less valuable role in decision making. From a pluralistic worldview, the value and importance of one realm is not lessened by the presence of another. In a pluralistic view, the Emotional and Transcendental Realms may enhance data-driven decisions by adding accuracy and transparency in data interpretations. Additionally, each person in a group may hold a different worldview, sense of purpose, etc., and it is in those differences that the group may find creative solutions.
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