Category: Practical Wisdom
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Why probability probably doesn’t exist
(but it is useful to act like it does) David Spiegelhalter All of statistics and much of science depends on probability — an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is. In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist — but it is often useful to act as if it does.— David…
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Explanation in Biology
The most recent publication from the series “Philisophy of Biology” is “Explanation in Biology“, available for free download at the site. The book introduces and elaborates scientific explanations in biology and the life sciences. Explanations are viewed as a “primary” objective of science – theyoffer deep understanding and knowledge of the world, as opposed to…
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Does expertise protect?
“Does expertise protect”Does expertise protect against overclaiming false knowledge?“ Highlights Recognizing one’s ignorance is a fundamental skill. We ask whether superior background knowledge or expertise improves the ability to distinguish what one knows from what one does not know, i.e., whether expertise leads to superior meta-knowledge. Supporting this hypothesis, we find that the more a…
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The power of parsimony
“Walking the talk on multi-level interventions: The power of parsimony“ There is strong consensus regarding the need for multi-level interventions (MLIs) to address today’s complex health problems. The greatest public health burdens globally (e.g., chronic and infectious diseases) derive from a mix of causal and contributing factors and are inherently complex, operating interdependently and reflexively…
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Seven Kinds of Decisions…
“Seven Kinds of Decisions Sports Coaches Make” The article describes the main kinds of decisions coaches make on a regular basis, based on the nature of the thought processes involved. We distinguish seven primary types and one special type. The primary types are roughly ordered from the fast, simple and intuitive at one end, to…
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The Universal Optimism of the Self-Evidencing Mind
“The Universal Optimism of the Self-Evidencing Mind“:Karl Friston’s free-energy principle casts agents as self-evidencing through active inference. This implies that decision-making, planning and information-seeking are, in a generic sense, ‘wishful’. We take an interdisciplinary perspective on this perplexing aspect of the free-energy principle and unpack the epistemological implications of wishful thinking under the free-energy principle.…
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