Category: #sense-making

• Beyond thinking fast and slow: clinical reasoning

  “Beyond thinking fast and slow: a Bayesian intuitionist model of clinical reasoning” Clinical reasoning is a quintessential aspect of medical training and practice, and is a topic that has been studied and written about extensively over the past few decades. However, the predominant conceptualisation of clinical reasoning has insofar been extrapolated from cognitive psychological theories…

  walterstiers

  2025-09-09

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Practical Wisdom, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, health, mental-health, technology

• A Model of Creative Thinking

  “Adaptive Decision-Making “Fast” and “Slow”: A Model of Creative Thinking” The late Daniel Kahneman introduced the concept of fast and slow thinking, representing two distinct cognitive systems involved in decision-making (DM). Fast thinking (System 1) operates intuitively and spontaneously. In contrast, slow thinking (System 2) is characterized by deliberation and analytical reasoning. Following Kahneman’s view, called the…

  walterstiers

  2025-09-04

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #Neuroscience, #TheInformationLens, psychology

• Climate Change, A Geoscience Perspective

  Climate Change, A Geoscience Perspective This open access book on climate change assesses past climatic change from a geoscience perspective and directly and effectively addresses common misconceptions on climate and climate change. A geoscience perspective on the multiple causes, rates, and consequences of climate change is essential context to assess modern climate change and our…

  walterstiers

  2025-09-01

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Complexity, Science, Sustainability

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked, climate, climate-change, environment, philosophy, Science

• Pathfinding: a neurodynamical account of intuition

  Pathfinding: a neurodynamical account of intuition We examine the neurobiology of intuition, a term often inconsistently defined in scientific literature. While researchers generally agree that intuition represents “an experienced-based process resulting in a spontaneous tendency toward a hunch or hypothesis,” we establish a firmer neurobiological foundation by framing intuition evolutionarily as a pathfinding mechanism emerging…

  walterstiers

  2025-08-17

  #sense-making, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, AI, artificial-intelligence, consciousness, mental-health, philosophy

• Horizon Scanning

  EU policy lab released a set of “signal cards“. More information available at “In the mood for the future with Horizon Scanning Cards“ The Signal Cards come out of the ESPAS Horizon Scanning activity, in which we present and analyse emerging trends, technologies or generally signs of new which we identified through the horizon scanning…

  walterstiers

  2025-08-16

  #sense-making, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Policy

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, politics, Sustainability, technology

• Responsible Modeling

  Responsible modelling and the ethics of mathematics for decision support Mathematical models are used to inform decisions across many sectors including climate change, finance, and epidemics. But models are not perfect representations of the real world – they are partial, uncertain and often biased. What, then, does responsible modelling look like? And how can we…

  walterstiers

  2025-06-30

  #sense-making, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Sensemaking – Eurosense

  Eurosense, A European Citizen Sensor Network, is a Europe-wide citizen science network that wants to make the voices of European citizens heard by activists, policy makers and governments.By understanding the experiences of citizens in public life, and the pulse of Europe, we will overcome polarisation and collectively tackle the challenges of our times such as…

  walterstiers

  2025-04-24

  #Cynefin, #sense-making, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

• Nested hierarchies in skills – importance of basic education

  In many careers, a person must learn foundational skills before advancing deeper into their profession. Computer programmers need a solid foundation in basic mathematics; nurses must gain clinical experience and specialized training to become nurse practitioners; a negotiator’s ability to persuade depends on solid communication and active-listening skills. A recent paper published in Nature Human Behaviour mapped the dependency…

  walterstiers

  2025-04-15

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, AI, artificial-intelligence, education, skills, technology

• “mundane behaviours resembles a drug”

  The problem extends across the globe. Researchers have studied compulsive shopping in many countries, including the United States, Turkey, Poland, Germany, India, Brazil, South Korea and Pakistan — where almost one-third of university students were classified as compulsive buyers in both physical stores and online.Heping He, a marketing researcher at Shenzhen University in China, is…

  walterstiers

  2025-03-06

  #sense-making, #stakeholder economy, Biology of Information

  #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #Neuroscience, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, addiction, anxiety, health, mental-health

• The Cognitive Life of Maps

  The “mapness of maps”—how maps live in interaction with their users, and what this tells us about what they are and how they work.Available as PDF for download. In a sense, maps are temporarily alive for those who design, draw, and use them. They have, for the moment, a cognitive life. To grapple with what…

  walterstiers

  2025-01-27

  #sense-making, Information Technology, Practical Wisdom, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, cartography, maps

• Why probability probably doesn’t exist

  (but it is useful to act like it does) David Spiegelhalter All of statistics and much of science depends on probability — an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is. In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist — but it is often useful to act as if it does.— David…

  walterstiers

  2025-01-27

  #sense-making, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Practical Wisdom, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, probability, Science

• The unbearable slowness of being …

  The unbearable slowness of being: Why do we live at 10 bits/s? This article is about the neural conundrum behind the slowness of human behavior. The information throughput of a human being is about 10 bits/s. In comparison, our sensory systems gather data at ∼109 bits/s. The stark contrast between these numbers remains unexplained and touches…

  walterstiers

  2025-01-02

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #Neuroscience, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, brain, health, mental-health, Science

• Contextualizing predictive minds

  “Contextualizing predictive minds” discusses how the structure of human memory seems to be optimized for efficient prediction, planning, and behavior. We propose that these capacities rely on a tripartite structure of memory that includes concepts, events, and contexts—three layers that constitute the mental world model. We suggest that the mechanism that critically increases adaptivity and…

  walterstiers

  2024-12-17

  #sense-making, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Policy, Social-Technical

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, AI, artificial-intelligence, machine-learning, psychology

• The primacy of doubt

  “The Primacy of Doubt“, By Tim Palmer discusses topics from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world. Tim Palmer brings us his first foray into popular science writing with a carefully considered and often expert exposition on a vast range of subjects. The credo…

  walterstiers

  2024-12-02

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, chaos-theory, climate, Science, weather

• Beyond the AHA!

  “Going beyond the AHA! moment: insight discovery for transdisciplinary research and learning“ The concept of ‘insight discovery’ is developed as a key competence for transdisciplinary research and learning in this paper. To address complex societal and environmental problems facing the world today, a particular expertise that can identify new connections between diverse knowledge fields is…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-25

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Innovation Games, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked, education, psychology

• Bayesian Models of Cognition 

  “Bayesian Models of Cognition Reverse Engineering the Mind” is a new MIT-press Open Access book available for online reading. The definitive introduction to Bayesian cognitive science, written by pioneers of the field. How does human intelligence work, in engineering terms? How do our minds get so much from so little? Bayesian models of cognition provide…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-19

  #sense-making, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens, AI, artificial-intelligence, data-science, machine-learning, statistics

• Thinking more or thinking differently?

  “Thinking more or thinking differently? Using drift-diffusion modeling to illuminate why accuracy prompts decrease misinformation sharing“ Recent experiments have found that prompting people to think about accuracy reduces misinformation sharing intentions. The process by which this effect operates, however, remains unclear. Do accuracy prompts cause people to “stop and think,” increasing deliberation? Or do they…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-14

  #sense-making, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, misinformation, news, social-media, technology

• The Universal Optimism of the Self-Evidencing Mind

  “The Universal Optimism of the Self-Evidencing Mind“:Karl Friston’s free-energy principle casts agents as self-evidencing through active inference. This implies that decision-making, planning and information-seeking are, in a generic sense, ‘wishful’. We take an interdisciplinary perspective on this perplexing aspect of the free-energy principle and unpack the epistemological implications of wishful thinking under the free-energy principle.…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-05

  #sense-making, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Practical Wisdom

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, affirmations, manifestation, mindset, philosophy

• Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures

  “Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures: A Review“ Types of user tasks that may involve cognitive biases: Task Description Causal Attribution Tasks involving an assessment of causality. Decision Tasks involving the selection of one over several alternative options. Estimation Tasks where people are asked to assess the value of a quantity. Hypothesis Assessment Tasks…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-05

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked, bias, cognitive-bias, cognitive-biases, decision-making, psychology

• AI tool helps people with opposing views find common ground

  A large language model can help groups to reach a consensus by producing statements that are clearer and fairer than those written by humans. A chatbot-like tool powered by artificial intelligence (AI) can help people with differing views to find areas of agreement, an experiment with online discussion groups has shown. The model, developed by…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-21

  #sense-making, #Wicked, AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Policy, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, artificial-intelligence, democracy, news, politics, technology

• Affect-centered account of motivated behavior

  “The affective gradient hypothesis: an affect-centered account of motivated behavior“: everyone agrees that feelings and actions are intertwined, but cannot agree how. According to dominant models, actions are directed by estimates of value and these values shape or are shaped by affect. The article proposes instead that affect is the only form of value that…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-13

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, education, health, mental-health, personal-growth, psychology

• Better stories <equals> better solutions

  Become a Better Problem Solver by Telling Better Stories is a great article from Arnaud Chevallier, Albrecht Enders, and Jean-Louis Barsoux on MIT SMR. One of the biggest obstacles to effective decision-making is failure to define the problem well. Invoking the power of narrative and a simple story structure can help ensure that teams are…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-26

  #sense-making, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Innovation Games, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, business, gaming, writing

• Lead with purpose, govern in partnership

  Also by  Professor Mazzucato from the IIPP: “MISSION CRITICAL 01 Statecraft for the 21st century“ This research draws on expert interviews and builds out from the seminal work of author Professor Mariana Mazzucato at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP). She has established clear criteria for missions (Mazzucato, 2019) and made the case for mission-oriented government (Mazzucato,…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-15

  #sense-making, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, economy, government

• Countries must decide what missions can help direct their economies.

  Industrial strategy is experiencing a renaissance. Getting the details right matter. Mission-oriented industrial strategy needs to be more than words if we want to avoid missions becoming part of the problem, not the solution. This report (Mission-oriented industrial strategy: global insights) is based on research conducted over the past several years, led by Professor Mazzucato and…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-15

  #sense-making, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Policy, Science, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, business, economy, leadership, management