Tag: #Uncertainty

• Was I fooled or wasn’t I?

  “What Is the Name of This Book?-The Riddle of Dracula and Other Logical Puzzles, by Raymond M. Smullyan” My introduction to logic was at the age of six. It happened this way: On April 1, 1925, I was sick in bed with grippe, or f lu, or something. In the morning my brother Emile (ten…

  walterstiers

  2026-01-15

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Practical Wisdom

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked

• The ‘made-up mind’.

  “The ‘made-up mind’. Deriving new hypotheses on delusions from general psychological models of belief maintenance” Highlights Contemporary definitions of delusions highlight their resistance to conflicting evidence as the core feature, but there has been little progress in understanding why even explicit confrontation with contradicting evidence seldom leads to belief revision. This review aims to generate…

  walterstiers

  2025-12-08

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, AI, artificial-intelligence, consciousness, philosophy, Science

• A Relational View of Uncertainty

  “A Relational View of Uncertainty” There is significant confusion and debate in entrepreneurship and strategy research about the nature and locus of uncertainty. Does uncertainty reside internally in the agent or externally in the environment? This article introduces a relational view of uncertainty (RVU) to help reframe this issue. In this framework, uncertainty is understood…

  walterstiers

  2025-10-03

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, artificial-intelligence, philosophy, Science

• Responsible Modeling

  Responsible modelling and the ethics of mathematics for decision support Mathematical models are used to inform decisions across many sectors including climate change, finance, and epidemics. But models are not perfect representations of the real world – they are partial, uncertain and often biased. What, then, does responsible modelling look like? And how can we…

  walterstiers

  2025-06-30

  #sense-making, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• misguidedly radical ideas?

  “Is bad philosophy holding back physics?“ Carlo Rovelli states:“My hunch is that it is at least partly because physicists are bad philosophers. Scientists’ opinions, whether they realize it or not (and whether they like it or not), are imbued with philosophy. And many of my colleagues — especially those who argue that philosophy is irrelevant…

  walterstiers

  2025-05-20

  Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Innovation Games, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, philosophy, physics, Science

• Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge?

  Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D…

  walterstiers

  2025-01-28

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, AI, data-science, machine-learning, philosophy, Science

• The primacy of doubt

  “The Primacy of Doubt“, By Tim Palmer discusses topics from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world. Tim Palmer brings us his first foray into popular science writing with a carefully considered and often expert exposition on a vast range of subjects. The credo…

  walterstiers

  2024-12-02

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, chaos-theory, climate, Science, weather

• Predecisional information search adaptively reduces uncertainty

  “Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three typesof uncertainty“ How do people search for information when they are given the opportunity to freely explore their options? Information search is an integral part of the decision-making process. Every choice we make is based on information that must first be obtained. In many cases, information search is inherently…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-18

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures

  “Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures: A Review“ Types of user tasks that may involve cognitive biases: Task Description Causal Attribution Tasks involving an assessment of causality. Decision Tasks involving the selection of one over several alternative options. Estimation Tasks where people are asked to assess the value of a quantity. Hypothesis Assessment Tasks…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-05

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked, bias, cognitive-bias, cognitive-biases, decision-making, psychology

• Risk and Uncertainty

  The core of this post comes from “How do smart people make smart decisions?” by Gerd Gigerenzer, delivered at TEDxNorrköping – available at https://youtube.com/watch?v=-Lg7G8TMe_A and a transcript available . However, there are more sources which lead to this insights, like e.g.: RISK VS UNCERTAINTY RISK: How should we make decisions when all relevant alternatives, consequences,…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-25

  #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical, Uncategorized

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Will We Ever Have Conscious Machines?

  The question of whether artificial beings or machines could become self-aware or conscious has been a philosophical question for centuries. The main problem is that self-awareness cannot be observed from an outside perspective and the distinction of being really self-aware or merely a clever imitation cannot be answered without access to knowledge about the mechanism’s…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-24

  AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Information Technology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Insight –> selection of ideas

  “Insight and the selection of ideas” describes the mechanisms underlying Eureka heuristic, explained within an active inference framework.  Perhaps it is no accident that insight moments accompany some of humanity’s most important discoveries in science, medicine, and art. Here we propose that feelings of insight play a central role in (heuristically) selecting an idea from…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-30

  #Sensemaking, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked, bayesian-inference, decision-making, heuristics, philosophy, psychology

• It Takes Two To Think

  The title refers to the recent article by Yanai & Lercher. (Itai Yanai is a Professor at the NYU School of Medicine. Martin Lercher is Professor at Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf at both the Institute for Computer Science and the Department of Biology. ) At the heart of science is a creative ‘night science‘ process,…

  walterstiers

  2024-01-09

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Models .. Right or Wrong:

  Often attributed to John Maynard Keynes, but the rooted elsewhere: “It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.” Carveth Read, “Logic: Deductive and Inductive” 4th edition -1920, p.351 You all have probably heard the story about Malcolm Forbes, who once got lost floating for miles in one of his famous balloons and finally…

  walterstiers

  2024-01-07

  #Sensemaking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Yes, it is an ART; but it leads tot non-decisions

  Anthony Judge 2021 blog on “The art of non-decision-making” identifies 14 aspects of the art of non-decision-making based on experiences serving in, and observing, a range of international organisations. 1. Definitional games: This is the process of defining categories in one way in one document or organizational unit, and then defining them in another way…

  walterstiers

  2023-11-23

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Cognitive distortions in recent decades

  Cognitive distortions are thinking patterns that are strongly associated with internalizing disorders such as depression and anxiety. Historical traces of in millions of books published over the course of the last two centuries in English, Spanish, and German show a pronounced “hockey stick” pattern: Over the past two decades the textual analogs of cognitive distortions…

  walterstiers

  2023-10-30

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science, Social-Technical

  #emergence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Stats don’t show enough

  Same Stats, Different Graphs: Generating Datasets with Varied Appearance and Identical Statistics through Simulated Annealing has some great figures I want to share. They show datasets which are identical over a number of statistical properties, yet produce dissimilar graphs, are frequently used to illustrate the importance of graphical representations when exploring data. As a geo-scientists,…

  walterstiers

  2023-01-04

  Information Technology, Science

  #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Information theory: A foundation for complexity science

  Amos Golan and John Harte published a perspective paper, consolidating the insights and research on knowledge and models from incomplete information in complex environments, based on MaxEnt Modeling and inference are central to most areas of science and especially to evolving and complex systems. Critically, the information we have is often uncertain and insufficient, resulting…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-29

  Complexity, Information Technology, Science

  #EconomicBehavior, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• It all comes together in a perfect storm :: “Keep it Simple”

  Three different levels of information processing show a remarkable alignment. They all are guided by similar principles, which do map and overlap.Let me briefly summarize them: First:Active Inference , a sentient behaviour theory, builds on the free energy principle. FEP implies a coupling between the internal and external states of a system that is symmetric:…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-14

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science, Social-Technical

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked

• Long live the Queen (he/his)

  The red queen is well knwon, and drives our current economic thinking (too much). I’ve already mentioned the fact of a long history of this theory of ‘Red Queen’ among evolutionary disciplines. There are alternatives, like ‘niche construct’ or ‘White Queen’ , more related to ideas like “commons“, based on ‘survival of the fittest’, in stead of ‘.. of…

  walterstiers

  2022-09-15

  #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Rethinking Computational Approaches to the Mind

  Rethinking Computational Approaches to the Mind Fundamental Challenges and Future Perspectives One-day Online Symposium21st October 2022 REGISTER HERE This one-day online event will bring together researchers with expertise in various areas such as complexity science, machine learning & artificial intelligence, information theory & data science, as well as computational/theoretical neuroscience & philosophy to explore different computational approaches…

  walterstiers

  2022-09-08

  #Sensemaking, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Nice TED speech on capital psycho pathology

  I’ve been pointed to the great lecture Jon Ronson delivered at TED2012: “Strange answers to the psychopath test” It becomes very interesting and maybe even somewhat scary from minute 9. Some parts o the transcripts to get the idea: capitalism at its most ruthless rewards psychopathic behavior — the lack of empathy, the glibness, cunning, manipulative.  So, here’s…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-25

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Complexity, Life Ideas, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Supporting sensemaking and decisions with scientific evidence

  If you have the opportunity to work on a complex problem, including change at the technical, organizational and governance/policy level of a rather complicated environment, you can considered to be lucky to start with the insights from the Cynefin farmework, developed by Dave Snowden. Recent evolution of this framework include “Entanglement“, liminality and the great…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-03

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Information Technology, Neurobiology/psychology, Policy, Science, Social-Technical, Uncategorized

  #ActiveInference, #Cynefin, #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #Sensemaking, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked

• Where the senses fail us, reason must step in

  It is true that the unique human ability to reason is what allows for science, technology, and advanced problem-solving. But there are limitations to reason. Highly deliberative people tend to be less empathetic, are often perceived as less trustworthy and authentic, and can undermine their own influence. Ultimately, the supposed battle between head and heart is overblown.…

  walterstiers

  2022-06-02

  #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked