Tag: #Uncertainty

• The ‘made-up mind’.

  “The ‘made-up mind’. Deriving new hypotheses on delusions from general psychological models of belief maintenance” Highlights Contemporary definitions of delusions highlight their resistance to conflicting evidence as the core feature, but there has been little progress in understanding why even explicit confrontation with contradicting evidence seldom leads to belief revision. This review aims to generate…

  walterstiers

  2025-12-08

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, AI, artificial-intelligence, consciousness, philosophy, Science

• A Relational View of Uncertainty

  “A Relational View of Uncertainty” There is significant confusion and debate in entrepreneurship and strategy research about the nature and locus of uncertainty. Does uncertainty reside internally in the agent or externally in the environment? This article introduces a relational view of uncertainty (RVU) to help reframe this issue. In this framework, uncertainty is understood…

  walterstiers

  2025-10-03

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, artificial-intelligence, philosophy, Science

• Responsible Modeling

  Responsible modelling and the ethics of mathematics for decision support Mathematical models are used to inform decisions across many sectors including climate change, finance, and epidemics. But models are not perfect representations of the real world – they are partial, uncertain and often biased. What, then, does responsible modelling look like? And how can we…

  walterstiers

  2025-06-30

  #sense-making, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• misguidedly radical ideas?

  “Is bad philosophy holding back physics?“ Carlo Rovelli states:“My hunch is that it is at least partly because physicists are bad philosophers. Scientists’ opinions, whether they realize it or not (and whether they like it or not), are imbued with philosophy. And many of my colleagues — especially those who argue that philosophy is irrelevant…

  walterstiers

  2025-05-20

  Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Innovation Games, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, philosophy, physics, Science

• Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge?

  Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D…

  walterstiers

  2025-01-28

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, AI, data-science, machine-learning, philosophy, Science

• The primacy of doubt

  “The Primacy of Doubt“, By Tim Palmer discusses topics from climate change to quantum physics, how the science of uncertainty can help predict and understand our chaotic world. Tim Palmer brings us his first foray into popular science writing with a carefully considered and often expert exposition on a vast range of subjects. The credo…

  walterstiers

  2024-12-02

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, chaos-theory, climate, Science, weather

• Predecisional information search adaptively reduces uncertainty

  “Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three typesof uncertainty“ How do people search for information when they are given the opportunity to freely explore their options? Information search is an integral part of the decision-making process. Every choice we make is based on information that must first be obtained. In many cases, information search is inherently…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-18

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures

  “Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures: A Review“ Types of user tasks that may involve cognitive biases: Task Description Causal Attribution Tasks involving an assessment of causality. Decision Tasks involving the selection of one over several alternative options. Estimation Tasks where people are asked to assess the value of a quantity. Hypothesis Assessment Tasks…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-05

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked, bias, cognitive-bias, cognitive-biases, decision-making, psychology

• Risk and Uncertainty

  The core of this post comes from “How do smart people make smart decisions?” by Gerd Gigerenzer, delivered at TEDxNorrköping – available at https://youtube.com/watch?v=-Lg7G8TMe_A and a transcript available . However, there are more sources which lead to this insights, like e.g.: RISK VS UNCERTAINTY RISK: How should we make decisions when all relevant alternatives, consequences,…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-25

  #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical, Uncategorized

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Will We Ever Have Conscious Machines?

  The question of whether artificial beings or machines could become self-aware or conscious has been a philosophical question for centuries. The main problem is that self-awareness cannot be observed from an outside perspective and the distinction of being really self-aware or merely a clever imitation cannot be answered without access to knowledge about the mechanism’s…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-24

  AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Information Technology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty