Category: Decision Intelligence
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The power of mathematical models for better policy decisions
“Harnessing the power of mathematical models for better policy decisions” sets out four practical recommendations to help policymakers across a wide range of policy areas effectively capitalise on, and sidestep pitfalls of, using mathematical models for decision-making. Decision-makers are often keen to “follow the science” in highly-charged contexts such as climate policy, pandemic response, economic…
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Greatness Cannot Be Planned
Why does modern life revolve around objectives? From how science is funded, to improving how children are educated — and nearly everything in-between — our society has become obsessed with a seductive illusion: that greatness results from doggedly measuring improvement in the relentless pursuit of an ambitious goal. In Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned—The Myth of…
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AI only sees the data trail, not the human story
Cassie Kozyrkov just shared a great story: “AI only sees the data trail, not the human story“ AI only sees the past, not the future.AI only sees the pattern, not the purpose.AI only sees the data trail, not the human story.AI only sees compliance, not commitment.AI only sees keyword matches, not understanding.AI only sees what…
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Humans rationally balance abstract world models
This work adds to a growing body of research showing that the brain arbitrates between approximate decision strategies. The current study extends these ideas from simple habits into usage of more sophisticated approximate predictive models, and demonstrates that individuals dynamically adapt these in response to the predictability of their environment. How do people model the…
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Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge?
Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D…
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A hidden Gem – Residuality
Software architecture for a rapidly changing world – with Barry O’Reilly describes the marvelous journey of Residues as an ‘Antifragile’ Software Architecture decision process (but also scalable to solution and Enterprise Architecture) Residuality theory is a revolutionary new theory of software design that aims to make it easier to design software systems for complex business…
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Why probability probably doesn’t exist
(but it is useful to act like it does) David Spiegelhalter All of statistics and much of science depends on probability — an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is. In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist — but it is often useful to act as if it does.— David…
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ostracism across contexts
“Psychosocial and behavioural consequences of ostracism across contexts“ Ostracism (being ignored and excluded) thwarts basic psychological needs fundamental for human survival. As a painful experience, ostracism has various mental health, cognitive and behavioural consequences. In this Review, we outline the main psychosocial and behavioural consequences of ostracism and consider how these consequences might be unique…
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The unbearable slowness of being …
The unbearable slowness of being: Why do we live at 10 bits/s? This article is about the neural conundrum behind the slowness of human behavior. The information throughput of a human being is about 10 bits/s. In comparison, our sensory systems gather data at ∼109 bits/s. The stark contrast between these numbers remains unexplained and touches…
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Deciding how to decide (urban infrastructure maintenance)
“Deciding how to decide: A conceptual model for consensually fostering urban infrastructure maintenance” discusses infrastructure owners facing challenges in effective maintenance decision-making due to the process’s multidisciplinary nature, spanning mathematics to cognitive science. This study delves into enhancing maintenance for complex infrastructure systems, specifically in scenarios where a single primary owner must consider the preferences…
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Bayesian Models of Cognition
“Bayesian Models of Cognition Reverse Engineering the Mind” is a new MIT-press Open Access book available for online reading. The definitive introduction to Bayesian cognitive science, written by pioneers of the field. How does human intelligence work, in engineering terms? How do our minds get so much from so little? Bayesian models of cognition provide…
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Predecisional information search adaptively reduces uncertainty
“Predecisional information search adaptively reduces three typesof uncertainty“ How do people search for information when they are given the opportunity to freely explore their options? Information search is an integral part of the decision-making process. Every choice we make is based on information that must first be obtained. In many cases, information search is inherently…
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Does expertise protect?
“Does expertise protect”Does expertise protect against overclaiming false knowledge?“ Highlights Recognizing one’s ignorance is a fundamental skill. We ask whether superior background knowledge or expertise improves the ability to distinguish what one knows from what one does not know, i.e., whether expertise leads to superior meta-knowledge. Supporting this hypothesis, we find that the more a…
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The power of parsimony
“Walking the talk on multi-level interventions: The power of parsimony“ There is strong consensus regarding the need for multi-level interventions (MLIs) to address today’s complex health problems. The greatest public health burdens globally (e.g., chronic and infectious diseases) derive from a mix of causal and contributing factors and are inherently complex, operating interdependently and reflexively…
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Seven Kinds of Decisions…
“Seven Kinds of Decisions Sports Coaches Make” The article describes the main kinds of decisions coaches make on a regular basis, based on the nature of the thought processes involved. We distinguish seven primary types and one special type. The primary types are roughly ordered from the fast, simple and intuitive at one end, to…
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