Category: Decision Intelligence
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Decisions: Studying and Supporting
“Decisions: Studying and Supporting People Facing Hard Choices“ A lively, authoritative insider’s account of how we make decisions and how decision-making research has developed over the last half century. Decisions describes the evolution of decision science (also called behavioral decision research and related to behavioral economics) through its application to challenging personal and public policy decisions,…
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Fast, slow, & metacognitive
“Fast, slow, and metacognitive thinking in AI” Inspired by the ”thinking fast and slow” cognitive theory of human decision making, we propose a multi-agent cognitive architecture (SOFAI) that is based on ”fast”/”slow” solvers and a metacognitive module. We then present experimental results on the behavior of an instance of this architecture for AI systems that…
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Critical Thinking for Medicine—Moving Beyond Illness Scripts
“Critical Thinking for 21st-CenturyMedicine—Moving Beyond Illness Scripts” Clinical Reasoning for 21st-Century Medicine: Optimal clinical reasoning will involve an appropriate balance betweenillness scripts and pathophysiological reasoning. In our view, medical education has historically overemphasized the former—to which learners are predisposed even without explicit teaching— and underemphasized the latter. The risks of this historical approach will become…
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Known and Unknown Biases
“Known and Unknown Biases: A Framework for Contextualising and Identifying Bias in Animal Behaviour Research“ (This article discusses the bias in animal behaviour research, but – as known to most readers, I hope – humanes too are members of the animal kingdom 🙂 Biases in animal behaviour research are inevitable consequences of our societal and…
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A Model of Creative Thinking
“Adaptive Decision-Making “Fast” and “Slow”: A Model of Creative Thinking” The late Daniel Kahneman introduced the concept of fast and slow thinking, representing two distinct cognitive systems involved in decision-making (DM). Fast thinking (System 1) operates intuitively and spontaneously. In contrast, slow thinking (System 2) is characterized by deliberation and analytical reasoning. Following Kahneman’s view, called the…
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Responsible Modeling
Responsible modelling and the ethics of mathematics for decision support Mathematical models are used to inform decisions across many sectors including climate change, finance, and epidemics. But models are not perfect representations of the real world – they are partial, uncertain and often biased. What, then, does responsible modelling look like? And how can we…
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De Wilde Ziel
De Wilde Ziel – Leven met de natuur als leraar: herontdek je wilde kant.Craig Foster, 2025 (origilele titel: “Amphibious Soul”) We zaten op een rots en ik vertelde Tom verhalen over mijn jeugd, over onze houten bungalow en over de nacht van de grote overstroming. Ik vertelde hem over het flesje met brieven en buitenlands…
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misguidedly radical ideas?
“Is bad philosophy holding back physics?“ Carlo Rovelli states:“My hunch is that it is at least partly because physicists are bad philosophers. Scientists’ opinions, whether they realize it or not (and whether they like it or not), are imbued with philosophy. And many of my colleagues — especially those who argue that philosophy is irrelevant…
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The power of mathematical models for better policy decisions
“Harnessing the power of mathematical models for better policy decisions” sets out four practical recommendations to help policymakers across a wide range of policy areas effectively capitalise on, and sidestep pitfalls of, using mathematical models for decision-making. Decision-makers are often keen to “follow the science” in highly-charged contexts such as climate policy, pandemic response, economic…
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Greatness Cannot Be Planned
Why does modern life revolve around objectives? From how science is funded, to improving how children are educated — and nearly everything in-between — our society has become obsessed with a seductive illusion: that greatness results from doggedly measuring improvement in the relentless pursuit of an ambitious goal. In Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned—The Myth of…
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AI only sees the data trail, not the human story
Cassie Kozyrkov just shared a great story: “AI only sees the data trail, not the human story“ AI only sees the past, not the future.AI only sees the pattern, not the purpose.AI only sees the data trail, not the human story.AI only sees compliance, not commitment.AI only sees keyword matches, not understanding.AI only sees what…
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Humans rationally balance abstract world models
This work adds to a growing body of research showing that the brain arbitrates between approximate decision strategies. The current study extends these ideas from simple habits into usage of more sophisticated approximate predictive models, and demonstrates that individuals dynamically adapt these in response to the predictability of their environment. How do people model the…
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Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge?
Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D…
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A hidden Gem – Residuality
Software architecture for a rapidly changing world – with Barry O’Reilly describes the marvelous journey of Residues as an ‘Antifragile’ Software Architecture decision process (but also scalable to solution and Enterprise Architecture) Residuality theory is a revolutionary new theory of software design that aims to make it easier to design software systems for complex business…
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Why probability probably doesn’t exist
(but it is useful to act like it does) David Spiegelhalter All of statistics and much of science depends on probability — an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is. In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist — but it is often useful to act as if it does.— David…
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ostracism across contexts
“Psychosocial and behavioural consequences of ostracism across contexts“ Ostracism (being ignored and excluded) thwarts basic psychological needs fundamental for human survival. As a painful experience, ostracism has various mental health, cognitive and behavioural consequences. In this Review, we outline the main psychosocial and behavioural consequences of ostracism and consider how these consequences might be unique…
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The unbearable slowness of being …
The unbearable slowness of being: Why do we live at 10 bits/s? This article is about the neural conundrum behind the slowness of human behavior. The information throughput of a human being is about 10 bits/s. In comparison, our sensory systems gather data at ∼109 bits/s. The stark contrast between these numbers remains unexplained and touches…
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Deciding how to decide (urban infrastructure maintenance)
“Deciding how to decide: A conceptual model for consensually fostering urban infrastructure maintenance” discusses infrastructure owners facing challenges in effective maintenance decision-making due to the process’s multidisciplinary nature, spanning mathematics to cognitive science. This study delves into enhancing maintenance for complex infrastructure systems, specifically in scenarios where a single primary owner must consider the preferences…
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