Category: Decision Intelligence

• The power of parsimony

  “Walking the talk on multi-level interventions: The power of parsimony“ There is strong consensus regarding the need for multi-level interventions (MLIs) to address today’s complex health problems. The greatest public health burdens globally (e.g., chronic and infectious diseases) derive from a mix of causal and contributing factors and are inherently complex, operating interdependently and reflexively…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-06

  Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, philosophy, Science

• Seven Kinds of Decisions…

  “Seven Kinds of Decisions Sports Coaches Make” The article describes the main kinds of decisions coaches make on a regular basis, based on the nature of the thought processes involved. We distinguish seven primary types and one special type. The primary types are roughly ordered from the fast, simple and intuitive at one end, to…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-06

  Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Practical Wisdom

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, business, coaching, leadership, news, sports

• Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures

  “Cognitive Biases in Fact-Checking and Their Countermeasures: A Review“ Types of user tasks that may involve cognitive biases: Task Description Causal Attribution Tasks involving an assessment of causality. Decision Tasks involving the selection of one over several alternative options. Estimation Tasks where people are asked to assess the value of a quantity. Hypothesis Assessment Tasks…

  walterstiers

  2024-11-05

  #sense-making, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked, bias, cognitive-bias, cognitive-biases, decision-making, psychology

• AI tool helps people with opposing views find common ground

  A large language model can help groups to reach a consensus by producing statements that are clearer and fairer than those written by humans. A chatbot-like tool powered by artificial intelligence (AI) can help people with differing views to find areas of agreement, an experiment with online discussion groups has shown. The model, developed by…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-21

  #sense-making, #Wicked, AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Policy, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, artificial-intelligence, democracy, news, politics, technology

• The illusion of information adequacy

  “The illusion of information adequacy““The science behind why people think they’re right when they’re actually wrong“ You don’t know what you don’t know.  –Socrates How individuals navigate perspectives and attitudes that diverge from their own affects an array of interpersonal outcomes from the health of marriages to the unfolding of international conflicts. The finesse with…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-17

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Policy, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, empathy, mental-health, philosophy, psychology, realism

• Functional Trade-offs in Cognition

  “Basic Functional Trade-offs in Cognition: An Integrative Framework” by Marco Del Giudice and Bernard J. Crespi, 2018. Trade-offs between advantageous but conflicting properties (e.g., speed vs. accuracy) are ubiquitous in cognition, but the relevant literature is conceptually fragmented, scattered across disciplines, and has not been organized in a coherent framework. This paper takes an initial step toward a general…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-15

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Narrative as active inference

  “Narrative as active inference: an integrative account of cognitive and social functions in adaptation“:While the ubiquity and importance of narratives for human adaptation is widely recognized, there is no integrative framework for understanding the roles of narrative in human adaptation. Research has identified several cognitive and social functions of narratives that are conducive to well-being…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-13

  Active Inference, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Social-Technical

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, education, marketing, philosophy, storytelling, writing

• Belief-Consistent Information Processing for a Set of Biases

  “Toward Parsimony in Bias Research: A Proposed Common Framework of Belief-Consistent Information Processing for a Set of Biases“ The authors argue that many different biases, such as the bias blind spot, hostile media bias, egocentric/ethnocentric bias, and outcome bias, can be traced back to the combination of a fundamental prior belief and humans’ tendency toward…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-13

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, bias, cognitive-bias, cognitive-biases, confirmation-bias, psychology

• Affect-centered account of motivated behavior

  “The affective gradient hypothesis: an affect-centered account of motivated behavior“: everyone agrees that feelings and actions are intertwined, but cannot agree how. According to dominant models, actions are directed by estimates of value and these values shape or are shaped by affect. The article proposes instead that affect is the only form of value that…

  walterstiers

  2024-10-13

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, education, health, mental-health, personal-growth, psychology

• regulation of motivated behavior

  in “A unified theoretical framework underlying the regulation of motivated behavior“, Yu-Been Kim, Young Hee Lee, Shee-June Park and Hyung Jin Choi explain that multiple psychological components have evolved in order to orchestrate behaviors for survival. Despite several theories regarding behavior regulation, these theories do not clearly distinguish distinct components and do not explain the…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-26

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, AI, artificial-intelligence, health, machine-learning, technology

• Better stories <equals> better solutions

  Become a Better Problem Solver by Telling Better Stories is a great article from Arnaud Chevallier, Albrecht Enders, and Jean-Louis Barsoux on MIT SMR. One of the biggest obstacles to effective decision-making is failure to define the problem well. Invoking the power of narrative and a simple story structure can help ensure that teams are…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-26

  #sense-making, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Innovation Games, Life Ideas, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, business, gaming, writing

• Risk and Uncertainty

  The core of this post comes from “How do smart people make smart decisions?” by Gerd Gigerenzer, delivered at TEDxNorrköping – available at https://youtube.com/watch?v=-Lg7G8TMe_A and a transcript available . However, there are more sources which lead to this insights, like e.g.: RISK VS UNCERTAINTY RISK: How should we make decisions when all relevant alternatives, consequences,…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-25

  #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical, Uncategorized

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Resilience may have downsides…

  Traditionally, resilience has been viewed as a general positive adaptation to stressors. However, the hallmark of resilience – returning to the previous state following a perturbation – may also have severe downsides, which are often overlooked. Specifically, it may be unrealistic to return to the previous state or resilience may cause a person to become…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-23

  Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #Neuroscience, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, mental-health, resilience, wellness

• practical wisdom in complex system management

  Leonie Hallo et al. published the research “Investigating practical wisdom in complex system management: What is it and how do we get more?“ Systems are now extremely complex with the continuous involvement of multiple stakeholders and rapidly advancing technology, and a new way of viewing high-performance system management and decision-making is needed.This paper considers the…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-11

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Practical Wisdom, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, leadership, personal-development

• I Might As Well Be Happy

  The Korean best-seller If I’m Going to Live to One Hundred, I Might As Well Be Happy, is a “comforting, insightful, and surprisingly hilarious collection of life lessons” from retired psychiatrist and essayist Rhee Kun Hoo (이근후 1935-). He offers the wisdom he’s learned along the way on everything from forgiveness and regret to perseverance, letting…

  walterstiers

  2024-09-04

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Three Orders and levels of Theorizing: unite in complexity …

  “A Pragmatist Approach to Complexity Theorizing in Project Studies: Orders and Levels”  offers pragmatist recommendations to develop strong theorizing strategies organized in a triad: 1. orders of theorizing (degree of recursiveness of the theorizing process), 2. levels of theorizing (interactions between micro, meso, and macro loci of analysis), and 3. the integration between orders and…

  walterstiers

  2024-08-20

  #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Values to Vision scenarios for bridging the gap.

  Some insights I would like to share from Uri Avin, Robert Goodspeed & Lily Murnen: From Exploratory Scenarios to Plans: Bridging the Gap. Many planners may be familiar with normative scenario planning. With roots in the tradition of utopian plans, normative scenario planning similarly seeks to create a scenario that describes a desirable vision for…

  walterstiers

  2024-08-20

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Innovation Games, Policy, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Bayesian inference from the ground up

  Eric-Jan Wagenmakers and Dora Matzke developed a course book “Bayesian inference from the ground up: The theory of common sense” will be made freely available on their BayesianSpectacles website. Click here  to obtain the first 27 chapters and 4 appendix chapters. The website is full of interesting information, including the Let’s Poke a Pizza: A New…

  walterstiers

  2024-08-13

  Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

• It’s the Biology, Stupid!

  “It’s the biology, stupid! Proxy failures in economic decision making” is a commentary by Pier Luigi Sacco (available here), on a work by Yohan J. John et.al.: “Dead rats, dopamine, performance metrics, and peacock tails: Proxy failure is an inherent risk in goal-oriented systems” (also available on ResearchGate) Where the “Dead rats, … peacock tails”…

  walterstiers

  2024-08-07

  #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Biology of Information, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens

• Insight –> selection of ideas

  “Insight and the selection of ideas” describes the mechanisms underlying Eureka heuristic, explained within an active inference framework.  Perhaps it is no accident that insight moments accompany some of humanity’s most important discoveries in science, medicine, and art. Here we propose that feelings of insight play a central role in (heuristically) selecting an idea from…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-30

  #Sensemaking, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked, bayesian-inference, decision-making, heuristics, philosophy, psychology

• music and aging | Bayesian inference

  “Understanding music and aging through the lens of Bayesian inference“ Bayesian inference has recently gained momentum in explaining music perception and aging. A fundamental mechanism underlying Bayesian inference is the notion of prediction. This framework could explain how predictions pertaining to musical (melodic, rhythmic, harmonic) structures engender action, emotion, and learning, expanding related concepts of music…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-29

  Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

•  The Edge of Sentience

  “The Edge of Sentience: Risk and Precaution in Humans, Other Animals, and AI.” by Jonathan Birch Can octopuses feel pain and pleasure? What about crabs, shrimps, insects, or spiders? How do we tell whether a person unresponsive after severe brain injury might be suffering? When does a fetus in the womb start to have conscious experiences?…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-29

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked, AI, artificial-intelligence, consciousness, sentience

• Lead with purpose, govern in partnership

  Also by  Professor Mazzucato from the IIPP: “MISSION CRITICAL 01 Statecraft for the 21st century“ This research draws on expert interviews and builds out from the seminal work of author Professor Mariana Mazzucato at the UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose (IIPP). She has established clear criteria for missions (Mazzucato, 2019) and made the case for mission-oriented government (Mazzucato,…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-15

  #sense-making, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, economy, government

• Countries must decide what missions can help direct their economies.

  Industrial strategy is experiencing a renaissance. Getting the details right matter. Mission-oriented industrial strategy needs to be more than words if we want to avoid missions becoming part of the problem, not the solution. This report (Mission-oriented industrial strategy: global insights) is based on research conducted over the past several years, led by Professor Mazzucato and…

  walterstiers

  2024-07-15

  #sense-making, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Policy, Science, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, business, economy, leadership, management