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  • The Wisdom of the Inner Crowd

    The quality of decisions depends on the accuracy of estimates of relevant quantities. According to the wisdom of crowds principle, accurate estimates can be obtained by combining the judgements of different individuals. This principle has been successfully applied to improve, for example, economic forecasts, medical judgements and meteorological predictions. Unfortunately, there are many situations in…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-09
    Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Social-Technical
    #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind
  • HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2021-22

    The latest Human Development Report, “Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World”, launched September 8 by UNDP, argues that layers of uncertainty are stacking up and interacting to unsettle life in unprecedented ways. The last two years have had a devastating impact for billions of people around the world, when crises…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-09
    Complexity, Life Ideas, Policy
    #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind
  • Wouter inspired me to (re)act

    The most valuable communication happens in informal and unpredictable ways. (Most organizational charts are an illusion…) Wouter,je uitspraak is zowel waar als relevant. De meeste bedrijven baseren zich nog steeds op de near-composability van H. Simon, een organisatiemodel dat werkt, maar alleen voor korte-termijn doelstellingen. Een bedrijf is  complexer dan wat near-composability kan aanreiken. “no…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-09
    #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, #Wicked, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical
    #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked
  • Can you spot the penguin?

    What about hiding a Rockhopper in a scientifically fascinating location? Thus was born the legend that is Leif Penguinson and the very first “Can you spot the penguin?”. Since that day, our penguin protagonist has travelled to dozens of scientifically interesting (and eye-poppingly beautiful) locations around the world. Many more are available on the site…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-07
    Creative Thinking, Walking
  • Prediction: multi-scale pattern completion of the future

    The notion of the brain as a prediction machine has been extremely influential and productive in cognitive sciences.One prominent framework is of a “Bayesian brain” that explicitly generates predictions and uses resultant errors to guide adaptation. The prediction-generation component of this framework may involve little more than a pattern completion process. Brain-like systems can get…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-07
    #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Neurobiology/psychology
    #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens
  • Over-reliance on English hinders

    Several studies report a ‘bilingual advantage’ for cognitive control: the ability to plan, focus, and execute a wide array of tasks is better among bilinguals compared with monolinguals, in particular among older adult bilinguals. Nonetheless, this bilingual advantage is not replicated consistently, as the effect is heavily modulated by task, age of participants, and bilingual…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-07
    Biology of Information, Creative Thinking, Life Ideas, Science
    #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens
  • Designing Ecosystems of Intelligence from First Principles

    Karl Friston joins VERSES as Chief Scientist to Lead New Era in Artificial Intelligence.VERSES published its research paper to arxiv.org to explore the applications and implications of Active Inference on the future of Artificial Intelligence. “Designing Ecosystems of Intelligence from First Principles” lays out a vision of research and development in the field of artificial intelligence…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-07
    #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology
    #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens
  • Take your time to consider the possibilities and options

    Representations of possible actions pervade human high-level cognition, and shape how we plan, attribute causal responsibility, comprehend language, and make moral judgments.There are too many ‘possible actions’ for us to consider them all. Recent studies offer a strikingly convergent picture of how we call to mind a limited, useful set of possible actions to consider.This…

    walterstiers

    2022-12-07
    #Sensemaking, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology
    #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens
  • Kindness in Short Supply: Evidence for Inadequate Prosocial Input

    The social context we live in, has some complex, but important characteristics, and our well-being depends on the feedback we get. In the article Kindness in short supply: Evidence for inadequate prosocial input by Jennifer E.Abel, Preeti Vani, Nicole Abi-Esber, Hayley Blunden, Juliana Schroeder, the importance of kind feedback support is expressed. In summary: In…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-29
    #Sensemaking, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical
  • Statistical inference links data and theory in network science

    The number of network science applications across many different fields has been rapidly increasing. Surprisingly, the development of theory and domain-specific applications often occur in isolation, risking an effective disconnect between theoretical and methodological advances and the way network science is employed in practice. . In this work, we will focus on three intimately related…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-29
    Complexity, Information Technology, Science
    #TheInformationLens
  • Information theory: A foundation for complexity science

    Amos Golan and John Harte published a perspective paper, consolidating the insights and research on knowledge and models from incomplete information in complex environments, based on MaxEnt Modeling and inference are central to most areas of science and especially to evolving and complex systems. Critically, the information we have is often uncertain and insufficient, resulting…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-29
    Complexity, Information Technology, Science
    #EconomicBehavior, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty
  • “decrease the mental-self-processing & a synchronization with the interoceptive and exteroceptive-self-processing”.

    I stated in a previous post the insight into our neurology of meditation, in order to attain our goal to keep it simple, but often fail to realize it. I already suggested, we need “to kill our darlings” in order to be open to the full context of the terrain we’re exposed to. A recent paper…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-28
    #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Creative Thinking, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology
    #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens
  • Only then we will be on the right track.

    This is more a kind of “look what is available for you all”,Open Acces and available as pdf download: Luiz Pessoa published his latest book “The Entangled Brain: How Perception, Cognition, and Emotion Are Woven Together” And, yes, the conclusion is very valuable: Ultimately, to explain the cognitive-emotional brain, we need to dissolve boundaries within the…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-15
    Biology of Information, Neurobiology/psychology
    #DecisionIntelligence
  • It all comes together in a perfect storm :: “Keep it Simple”

    Three different levels of information processing show a remarkable alignment. They all are guided by similar principles, which do map and overlap.Let me briefly summarize them: First:Active Inference , a sentient behaviour theory, builds on the free energy principle. FEP implies a coupling between the internal and external states of a system that is symmetric:…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-14
    #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science, Social-Technical
    #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked
  • Beliefs and Inference

    Beliefs are propositions about the true states of the world.Active inference—a process theory based on the free energy principle—describes how an agent forms and updates beliefs.The active inference framework posits that the agent (i) observes the world, (ii) infers the causes of the observations, and (iii) forms beliefs about the external states of the world.…

    walterstiers

    2022-11-07
    #Sensemaking, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology
    #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens
  • Conscious Body (&Mind) A lecture given by Deric

    Derics Brownds published a summary of a recent lecture on his website The start of the lecture is setting a very important message I’ve learned about work that has shown, in just the past 10-15 years, that much of what we thought we knew about how our minds work isn’t quite right, our commonsense notions,…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-25
    Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical
    #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens
  • Technology readiness levels for machine learning systems

    The development and deployment of machine learning systems can be executed easily with modern tools, but the process is typically rushed and means-to-an-end. Lack of diligence can lead to technical debt, scope creep and misaligned objectives, model misuse and failures, and expensive consequences. Engineering systems, on the other hand, follow well-defined processes and testing standards…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-20
    AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science
    #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI
  • Statistics: Are you Bayesian or Frequentist?

    Cats bring success – they are ket part of the internet traffic and enjoyment. So let me show a great pic: The real purpose of the cats-pics (delivered by a dog person) is the great video and article from Cassie Kozyrkov What is the difference between Bayesian and Frequentist statistics? (demonstrated with one single coin…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-20
    Complexity, Decision Intelligence
    #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens
  • Cynefin – Sensemaking

    Het Cynefin® framework werd als “sensemaking” door Dave Snowden ontwikkeld vanuit een natuur-wetenschappelijke insteek, met als een doel projecten te laten evolueren vanuit de bestaande toestand, en de mogelijke evoluties in te schatten, in plaats van een vooraf gedefinieerd einddoel te fixeren. Cynefin® is in wezen een beslissingsondersteunend kader (framework), geen methode of model.Het is…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-11
    #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence
    #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens
  • Beslissen: FEP, AI, Bayes

    “We sample the world to ensure our predictions become a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Karl Friston De beslissingswetenschappen en neurowetenschappen werden recent verrijkt door het principe van vrije energie (Free Energy Principle / FEP) van Karl Friston. FEP is misschien wel het meest allesomvattende idee sinds de theorie van natuurlijke selectie van Charles Darwin. Samenvattend is het…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-11
    AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Uncategorized
    #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #FreeEnergyPriciple, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens
  • Commons

    Garett Hardin 1 had – volgens velen – het laatste woord over de commons in zijn essay uit 1968, “The Tragedy of the Commons” 2.Aan de hand van het voorbeeld van grazende koeien betoogde hij dat iedereen die zijn eigen belang nastreeft altijd zou leiden tot overexploitatie van de gedeelde hulpbron. Elke winst die we…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-11
    Uncategorized
  • Samenwerken als Ecosysteem

    De omschrijving ecosysteem voor een samenwerking kan misleidend zijn. De verschillende activiteiten die de deelnemers dienen uitvoeren, bestaat uit een stroom van informatie, beslissingen, acties, risico, voordelen en waarde, die bij een ecosysteem begrensd of toegeëigend kan worden aan ‘het ecosysteem’. (Zie hierbij ook het concept van FEP). Indien de vermelde stromen in essentie ruimer…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-11
    #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Social-Technical, Sustainability
    #DecisionIntelligence, #Ecosystem, #TheInformationLens
  • Samenwerking en Ecosystemen

    Deze aanpak van de meeste contracten bestaat uit het uitbesteden van opdrachten zonder bijzondere aandacht aan gestructureerd overlegorganen voor gemeenschappelijke beslissingen. Deze werkwijze is terug te voeren op een inzicht in de geschiedenis van “Near-Decomposability”.Herbert Simon is een van de iconen van Near-Composability, een beheer- en bestuur methodologie, die grondig uitgewerkt is een veelvoud management-methodes.…

    walterstiers

    2022-10-11
    #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Social-Technical, Sustainability
    #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked
  • Long live the Queen (he/his)

    The red queen is well knwon, and drives our current economic thinking (too much). I’ve already mentioned the fact of a long history of this theory of ‘Red Queen’ among evolutionary disciplines. There are alternatives, like ‘niche construct’ or ‘White Queen’ , more related to ideas like “commons“, based on ‘survival of the fittest’, in stead of ‘.. of…

    walterstiers

    2022-09-15
    #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical, Sustainability
    #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty
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