Category: Complexity
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The power of mathematical models for better policy decisions
“Harnessing the power of mathematical models for better policy decisions” sets out four practical recommendations to help policymakers across a wide range of policy areas effectively capitalise on, and sidestep pitfalls of, using mathematical models for decision-making. Decision-makers are often keen to “follow the science” in highly-charged contexts such as climate policy, pandemic response, economic…
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Power of the Invisible
“The Power of the Invisible: The Quantessence of Reality” from Sander Bais There are two possible outcomes: if the result confirms the hypothesis, then you’ve made a measurement. If the result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you’ve made a discovery. Enrico Fermi Quantum Physics is the solid basis of most of our understanding of…
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Greatness Cannot Be Planned
Why does modern life revolve around objectives? From how science is funded, to improving how children are educated — and nearly everything in-between — our society has become obsessed with a seductive illusion: that greatness results from doggedly measuring improvement in the relentless pursuit of an ambitious goal. In Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned—The Myth of…
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Humans rationally balance abstract world models
This work adds to a growing body of research showing that the brain arbitrates between approximate decision strategies. The current study extends these ideas from simple habits into usage of more sophisticated approximate predictive models, and demonstrates that individuals dynamically adapt these in response to the predictability of their environment. How do people model the…
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Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge?
Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony The preference for simple explanations, known as the parsimony principle, has long guided the development of scientific theories, hypotheses, and models. Yet recent years have seen a number of successes in employing highly complex models for scientific inquiry (e.g., for 3D…
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A hidden Gem – Residuality
Software architecture for a rapidly changing world – with Barry O’Reilly describes the marvelous journey of Residues as an ‘Antifragile’ Software Architecture decision process (but also scalable to solution and Enterprise Architecture) Residuality theory is a revolutionary new theory of software design that aims to make it easier to design software systems for complex business…
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Why probability probably doesn’t exist
(but it is useful to act like it does) David Spiegelhalter All of statistics and much of science depends on probability — an astonishing achievement, considering no one’s really sure what it is. In our everyday world, probability probably does not exist — but it is often useful to act as if it does.— David…
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The unbearable slowness of being …
The unbearable slowness of being: Why do we live at 10 bits/s? This article is about the neural conundrum behind the slowness of human behavior. The information throughput of a human being is about 10 bits/s. In comparison, our sensory systems gather data at ∼109 bits/s. The stark contrast between these numbers remains unexplained and touches…
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Deciding how to decide (urban infrastructure maintenance)
“Deciding how to decide: A conceptual model for consensually fostering urban infrastructure maintenance” discusses infrastructure owners facing challenges in effective maintenance decision-making due to the process’s multidisciplinary nature, spanning mathematics to cognitive science. This study delves into enhancing maintenance for complex infrastructure systems, specifically in scenarios where a single primary owner must consider the preferences…
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