Category: Decision Intelligence

• Bayesian Nonlinear Models

  The review article Bayesian Nonlinear Models for Repeated Measurement Data gives a valuation of the use for the Bayesian Model to solve complex problems. Nonlinear mixed effects models have become a standard platform for analysis when data is in the form of continuous and repeated measurements of subjects from a population of interest, while temporal…

  walterstiers

  2023-04-15

  Active Inference, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked

• Small steps

  Small steps for mankind: Modeling the emergence of cumulative culture from joint active inference communication discusses a testable deep active inference formulation of social behavior and accompanying simulations of cumulative culture in two steps: First: cast cultural transmission as a bi-directional process of communication that induces a generalized synchrony (operationalized as a particular convergence) between…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-28

  #sense-making, #stakeholder economy, #Wicked, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Neurobiology/psychology, Policy, Science, Social-Technical

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Peter Pan ?

  There is controversy around the mechanisms that guided the change in brain shape during the evolution of modern humans. It has long been held that different cortical areas evolved independently from each other to develop their unique functional specializations. Some recent studies suggest that high integration between different cortical areas could facilitate the emergence of…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-20

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked

• Cardiac activity: its role in perception and action

  Patterns of cardiac activity continuously vary with environmentaldemands, accelerating or decelerating depending on circumstances. Simultaneously, cardiac cycle affects a host of higher-order processes, where systolic baroreceptor activation largely impairs processing. However, a unified functional perspective on the role of cardiac signal in perception and action has been lacking. — Patterns of cardiac activity continuously vary…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-17

  Active Inference, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology

  #ActiveInference, #TheInformationLens

• Human innovation depends on our collective brains

  A recent study investigates hunters’ causal understandings of bow design and mechanics among the Hadza, one of the last remaining foraging populations. The results suggest that sophisticated technology can evolve without complete causal understanding. Human innovation depends not on our individual brainpower but on our collective brains, on networks of diverse minds sharing information, lucky…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-17

  #sense-making, Biology of Information, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology

  #emergence, #TheInformationLens

• With AI, we can’t

  “Humans lie and manipulate each other’s emotions all the time, but at least we can reasonably guess at someone’s motivations, agenda and methods. With AI, we can’t.” Ethicist Carissa Véliz argues that chatbots that use emojis are emotionally manipulative: without appropriate safeguards, the technology could undermine people’s autonomy.  A 2021 study found that people consistently…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-15

  #sense-making, AI, Decision Intelligence, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #sense-making, #TheInformationLens

• How Occam’s razor guides human decision-making

  A rather complex but very interesting article was published @PennLibraries and (somewhat more recent) @bioRXiv But for those who want to understand by a lecture, I can recommend the Simons Faoundation lecture from Joshua Gold (also available on Youtube: How Occam’s Razor Guides Human and Machine Decision-Making) Occam’s razor is the principle stating that, all…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-03

  #Wicked, AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• A map is not the territory it represents, but…

  I quote one of the key ideas of my activities, as stated bij Korzybski: A map is not the territory it represents, but, if correct, it has a similar structure to the territory, which accounts for its usefulness Korzybski, “Science and sanity: An introduction to non-Aristotelian systems and general semantics.“ This post is created to…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-03

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science, Social-Technical

  #emergence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• 4 kinds of creativity

  HBR just published a nice article on 4 kinds of creativity.In the decades to come, creativity will be key to doing most jobs well. Gabriella Rosen Kellerman and Martin E.P. Seligman offer a new typology that breaks creative thinking into four types:  – integration, or showing that two things that appear different are the same; – splitting, or seeing how…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-03

  Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Social-Technical

  #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Millionaire spending incompatible with 1.5 ◦C ambitions

  This article in Cleaner Production Letters studies the implications of a continued growth in the number of millionaires for emissions, and its impact on the depletion of the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (about 400 Gt CO2). Much evidence suggests that the wealthiest individuals contribute disproportionally to climate change. Findings suggest that…

  walterstiers

  2023-03-03

  #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Policy, Science, Social-Technical

  #EconomicBehavior, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked

• “A New Evolutionary Law”

  Revisiting Leigh Van Valen’s “A New Evolutionary Law” (1973) by Ricard Solé, (Biological Theory (2022) 17:120–125) Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass Leigh Van Valen was an American evolutionary biologist who made major contributions to evolutionary theory. He is…

  walterstiers

  2023-02-25

  Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Science

  #Ecosystem, #emergence, #Entanglement, #TheInformationLens

• The Art of Abduction 

  Abductive reasoning typically begins with an incomplete set of observations and proceeds to the likeliest possible explanation for the set. Abductive reasoning yields the kind of daily decision-making that does its best with the information at hand, which often is incomplete. A medical diagnosis is an application of abductive reasoning: given this set of symptoms,…

  walterstiers

  2023-02-21

  #Sensemaking, Active Inference, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Beware the “lure of models”

  Scientists cannot help but use models says Mark Buchanan. Models help to clarify the consequences of theoretical assumptions, or to draw out complex lines of cause and effect … Without simplified conceptual models, scientific communication itself would be largely impossible.Of course, mathematical models also underlie some of the sciences’ most impressive achievements, like e.g. today’s…

  walterstiers

  2023-01-18

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Science

  #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• How mathematics invented new realities

  Although Euclid’s ideas about geometry in 300 BC were rooted in physical reality, the field became ever more abstract throughout the twentieth century.In her new book, historian Alma Steingart reveals how this push for abstraction was mirrored by, and often triggered, parallel trends in economics, sociology, psychology and political science. (Axiomatics: Mathematical Thought and High Modernism…

  walterstiers

  2023-01-18

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Science

  #ProblemSolvingMind

• Humans are keen to exploit benevolent AI

  Algorithm exploitation: Humans are keen to exploit benevolent AI: We cooperate with other people despite the risk of being exploited or hurt. If future artificial intelligence (AI) systems are benevolent and cooperative toward us, what will we do in return? Our cooperative dispositions are weaker when we interact with AI. Contrary to the hypothesis that…

  walterstiers

  2023-01-11

  AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #Analogy, #DecisionIntelligence, #EconomicBehavior, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens

• Adaptability and leaders

  “Leadership for organizational adaptability: A theoretical synthesis and integrative framework“One of the biggest challenges facing leaders today is the need to position and enable organizations and people for adaptability in the face of increasingly dynamic and demanding environments. Leadership for organizational adaptability is different from traditional leadership or leading change. It involves enabling the adaptive process…

  walterstiers

  2023-01-04

  #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Policy, Social-Technical

  #EconomicBehavior, #emergence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens

• Degrowth can work

  “The global economy is structured around growth — the idea that firms, industries and nations must increase production every year, regardless of whether it is needed. This dynamic is driving climate change and ecological breakdown. High-income economies, and the corporations and wealthy classes that dominate them, are mainly responsible for this problem and consume energy…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-12

  #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy

• The Wisdom of the Inner Crowd

  The quality of decisions depends on the accuracy of estimates of relevant quantities. According to the wisdom of crowds principle, accurate estimates can be obtained by combining the judgements of different individuals. This principle has been successfully applied to improve, for example, economic forecasts, medical judgements and meteorological predictions. Unfortunately, there are many situations in…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-09

  Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind

• Wouter inspired me to (re)act

  The most valuable communication happens in informal and unpredictable ways. (Most organizational charts are an illusion…) Wouter,je uitspraak is zowel waar als relevant. De meeste bedrijven baseren zich nog steeds op de near-composability van H. Simon, een organisatiemodel dat werkt, maar alleen voor korte-termijn doelstellingen. Een bedrijf is  complexer dan wat near-composability kan aanreiken. “no…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-09

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, #Wicked, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked

• Designing Ecosystems of Intelligence from First Principles

  Karl Friston joins VERSES as Chief Scientist to Lead New Era in Artificial Intelligence.VERSES published its research paper to arxiv.org to explore the applications and implications of Active Inference on the future of Artificial Intelligence. “Designing Ecosystems of Intelligence from First Principles” lays out a vision of research and development in the field of artificial intelligence…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-07

  #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens

• Take your time to consider the possibilities and options

  Representations of possible actions pervade human high-level cognition, and shape how we plan, attribute causal responsibility, comprehend language, and make moral judgments.There are too many ‘possible actions’ for us to consider them all. Recent studies offer a strikingly convergent picture of how we call to mind a limited, useful set of possible actions to consider.This…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-07

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• It all comes together in a perfect storm :: “Keep it Simple”

  Three different levels of information processing show a remarkable alignment. They all are guided by similar principles, which do map and overlap.Let me briefly summarize them: First:Active Inference , a sentient behaviour theory, builds on the free energy principle. FEP implies a coupling between the internal and external states of a system that is symmetric:…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-14

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science, Social-Technical

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked

• Beliefs and Inference

  Beliefs are propositions about the true states of the world.Active inference—a process theory based on the free energy principle—describes how an agent forms and updates beliefs.The active inference framework posits that the agent (i) observes the world, (ii) infers the causes of the observations, and (iii) forms beliefs about the external states of the world.…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-07

  #Sensemaking, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

• Conscious Body (&Mind) A lecture given by Deric

  Derics Brownds published a summary of a recent lecture on his website The start of the lecture is setting a very important message I’ve learned about work that has shown, in just the past 10-15 years, that much of what we thought we knew about how our minds work isn’t quite right, our commonsense notions,…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-25

  Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens