Category: Complexity

• “CAUSEME” to benchmark causal methods

  The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rarely feasible. However, a rapidly increasing amount of observational and simulated data opens up the use of novel data-driven causal methods beyond the…

  walterstiers

  2023-01-02

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Information Technology, Science

  #CausalMethod, #EarthScience, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Degrowth can work

  “The global economy is structured around growth — the idea that firms, industries and nations must increase production every year, regardless of whether it is needed. This dynamic is driving climate change and ecological breakdown. High-income economies, and the corporations and wealthy classes that dominate them, are mainly responsible for this problem and consume energy…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-12

  #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy

• HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2021-22

  The latest Human Development Report, “Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping our Future in a Transforming World”, launched September 8 by UNDP, argues that layers of uncertainty are stacking up and interacting to unsettle life in unprecedented ways. The last two years have had a devastating impact for billions of people around the world, when crises…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-09

  Complexity, Life Ideas, Policy

  #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind

• Wouter inspired me to (re)act

  The most valuable communication happens in informal and unpredictable ways. (Most organizational charts are an illusion…) Wouter,je uitspraak is zowel waar als relevant. De meeste bedrijven baseren zich nog steeds op de near-composability van H. Simon, een organisatiemodel dat werkt, maar alleen voor korte-termijn doelstellingen. Een bedrijf is  complexer dan wat near-composability kan aanreiken. “no…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-09

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, #Wicked, Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked

• Take your time to consider the possibilities and options

  Representations of possible actions pervade human high-level cognition, and shape how we plan, attribute causal responsibility, comprehend language, and make moral judgments.There are too many ‘possible actions’ for us to consider them all. Recent studies offer a strikingly convergent picture of how we call to mind a limited, useful set of possible actions to consider.This…

  walterstiers

  2022-12-07

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Statistical inference links data and theory in network science

  The number of network science applications across many different fields has been rapidly increasing. Surprisingly, the development of theory and domain-specific applications often occur in isolation, risking an effective disconnect between theoretical and methodological advances and the way network science is employed in practice. . In this work, we will focus on three intimately related…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-29

  Complexity, Information Technology, Science

  #TheInformationLens

• Information theory: A foundation for complexity science

  Amos Golan and John Harte published a perspective paper, consolidating the insights and research on knowledge and models from incomplete information in complex environments, based on MaxEnt Modeling and inference are central to most areas of science and especially to evolving and complex systems. Critically, the information we have is often uncertain and insufficient, resulting…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-29

  Complexity, Information Technology, Science

  #EconomicBehavior, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• It all comes together in a perfect storm :: “Keep it Simple”

  Three different levels of information processing show a remarkable alignment. They all are guided by similar principles, which do map and overlap.Let me briefly summarize them: First:Active Inference , a sentient behaviour theory, builds on the free energy principle. FEP implies a coupling between the internal and external states of a system that is symmetric:…

  walterstiers

  2022-11-14

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, Active Inference, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science, Social-Technical

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked

• Conscious Body (&Mind) A lecture given by Deric

  Derics Brownds published a summary of a recent lecture on his website The start of the lecture is setting a very important message I’ve learned about work that has shown, in just the past 10-15 years, that much of what we thought we knew about how our minds work isn’t quite right, our commonsense notions,…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-25

  Active Inference, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Neurobiology/psychology, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

• Technology readiness levels for machine learning systems

  The development and deployment of machine learning systems can be executed easily with modern tools, but the process is typically rushed and means-to-an-end. Lack of diligence can lead to technical debt, scope creep and misaligned objectives, model misuse and failures, and expensive consequences. Engineering systems, on the other hand, follow well-defined processes and testing standards…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-20

  AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI

• Statistics: Are you Bayesian or Frequentist?

  Cats bring success – they are ket part of the internet traffic and enjoyment. So let me show a great pic: The real purpose of the cats-pics (delivered by a dog person) is the great video and article from Cassie Kozyrkov What is the difference between Bayesian and Frequentist statistics? (demonstrated with one single coin…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-20

  Complexity, Decision Intelligence

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

• Cynefin – Sensemaking

  Het Cynefin® framework werd als “sensemaking” door Dave Snowden ontwikkeld vanuit een natuur-wetenschappelijke insteek, met als een doel projecten te laten evolueren vanuit de bestaande toestand, en de mogelijke evoluties in te schatten, in plaats van een vooraf gedefinieerd einddoel te fixeren. Cynefin® is in wezen een beslissingsondersteunend kader (framework), geen methode of model.Het is…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-11

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence

  #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Beslissen: FEP, AI, Bayes

  “We sample the world to ensure our predictions become a self-fulfilling prophecy.” Karl Friston De beslissingswetenschappen en neurowetenschappen werden recent verrijkt door het principe van vrije energie (Free Energy Principle / FEP) van Karl Friston. FEP is misschien wel het meest allesomvattende idee sinds de theorie van natuurlijke selectie van Charles Darwin. Samenvattend is het…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-11

  AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Uncategorized

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #emergence, #FreeEnergyPriciple, #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens

• Samenwerken als Ecosysteem

  De omschrijving ecosysteem voor een samenwerking kan misleidend zijn. De verschillende activiteiten die de deelnemers dienen uitvoeren, bestaat uit een stroom van informatie, beslissingen, acties, risico, voordelen en waarde, die bij een ecosysteem begrensd of toegeëigend kan worden aan ‘het ecosysteem’. (Zie hierbij ook het concept van FEP). Indien de vermelde stromen in essentie ruimer…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-11

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #DecisionIntelligence, #Ecosystem, #TheInformationLens

• Samenwerking en Ecosystemen

  Deze aanpak van de meeste contracten bestaat uit het uitbesteden van opdrachten zonder bijzondere aandacht aan gestructureerd overlegorganen voor gemeenschappelijke beslissingen. Deze werkwijze is terug te voeren op een inzicht in de geschiedenis van “Near-Decomposability”.Herbert Simon is een van de iconen van Near-Composability, een beheer- en bestuur methodologie, die grondig uitgewerkt is een veelvoud management-methodes.…

  walterstiers

  2022-10-11

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Wicked

• Long live the Queen (he/his)

  The red queen is well knwon, and drives our current economic thinking (too much). I’ve already mentioned the fact of a long history of this theory of ‘Red Queen’ among evolutionary disciplines. There are alternatives, like ‘niche construct’ or ‘White Queen’ , more related to ideas like “commons“, based on ‘survival of the fittest’, in stead of ‘.. of…

  walterstiers

  2022-09-15

  #Sensemaking, #stakeholder economy, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical, Sustainability

  #EconomicBehavior, #ProblemSolvingMind, #StakeholderEconomy, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Inquisitive but not discerning

  Deprivation curiosity is associated with excessive openness to inaccurate information. New psychology research reveals a dark side of curiosity states: “highly deprivation curious people have an excessive openness to information. More deprivation curious people are more likely to see meaning in meaningless gibberish sentences, and they are more likely to entertain pretty blatant disinformation”. “So…

  walterstiers

  2022-09-10

  #Sensemaking, Complexity, Life Ideas, Science

  #ProblemSolvingMind

• Rethinking Computational Approaches to the Mind

  Rethinking Computational Approaches to the Mind Fundamental Challenges and Future Perspectives One-day Online Symposium21st October 2022 REGISTER HERE This one-day online event will bring together researchers with expertise in various areas such as complexity science, machine learning & artificial intelligence, information theory & data science, as well as computational/theoretical neuroscience & philosophy to explore different computational approaches…

  walterstiers

  2022-09-08

  #Sensemaking, AI, Biology of Information, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Life Ideas, Neurobiology/psychology, Science

  #HumanAI, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• Begin with the decision-maker

  I enjoyed the article “The first step in AI might surprise you” on AI, ML, Data Science from Cassie so much, I decided to steal some quotes: Leaders, figure out who’s calling the shots. If it’s you, then let’s designate you “The Decision-Maker“ for this project. Otherwise, delegate the position to someone else and ask them to read the…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-31

  #Sensemaking, AI, Complexity, Decision Intelligence

  #ActiveInference, #DecisionIntelligence, #HumanAI, #ProblemSolvingMind

• Nice TED speech on capital psycho pathology

  I’ve been pointed to the great lecture Jon Ronson delivered at TED2012: “Strange answers to the psychopath test” It becomes very interesting and maybe even somewhat scary from minute 9. Some parts o the transcripts to get the idea: capitalism at its most ruthless rewards psychopathic behavior — the lack of empathy, the glibness, cunning, manipulative.  So, here’s…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-25

  #Sensemaking, Biology of Information, Complexity, Life Ideas, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty

• The Learning Power of Listening

  Sensemaking is related to the mapping and understanding of entangled complex situations and deciding upon the first best move. This all is best observed through stories and story-telling analysis, like the Cynefin Sensemaker. Oxfam just relesed a great guide “The Learning Power of Listening Practical guidance for using SenseMaker“, showing their use of the method…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-04

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Decision Intelligence, Information Technology, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens

• Policy making and governance of complex projects

  A very interesting use of this sensemaking appporach towards the governance and policymaking is suggested by a great inspiring work towards the policy making and governance of complex projects is the recent publication from JRC Knowledge For Policy: Supporting policy with scientific evidence Competences for policymaking, Competence frameworks for policymakers and researchers working on public policy. I appreciate the competence…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-04

  #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Life Ideas, Policy, Social-Technical

  #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #TheInformationLens

• Supporting sensemaking and decisions with scientific evidence

  If you have the opportunity to work on a complex problem, including change at the technical, organizational and governance/policy level of a rather complicated environment, you can considered to be lucky to start with the insights from the Cynefin farmework, developed by Dave Snowden. Recent evolution of this framework include “Entanglement“, liminality and the great…

  walterstiers

  2022-08-03

  #Cynefin, #Sensemaking, #Wicked, Biology of Information, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Decision Intelligence, Design Thinking, Information Technology, Neurobiology/psychology, Policy, Science, Social-Technical, Uncategorized

  #ActiveInference, #Cynefin, #DecisionIntelligence, #ProblemSolvingMind, #Sensemaking, #TheInformationLens, #Uncertainty, #Wicked

• The curse of knowledge

  Experts are poorer communicators in their own domain than nonexperts, MIT Sloan’s Miro Kazakoff says, and he offers ways to reverse that curse. “One of the critical challenges of professional communication is to recognize and internalize the variety of ways that people decode things,” “When we see a pattern or recognize something or know something,…

  walterstiers

  2022-07-11

  #Wicked, Complexity, Creative Thinking, Science

  #DecisionIntelligence, #TheInformationLens